ARTICLE 4
“THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER”
BY SHYAM SARAN (FORMER FOREIGN SECRETARY),
A. OPENING FRAME: A WORLD IN TRANSITION AND DISORDER
1) “The centre cannot hold” — the inflection point thesis
- Uses W.B. Yeats (“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold…”) to signal:
- Breakdown of the post-1945 international order.
- Weakening of institutions, norms, and predictability.
- Entry into a prolonged phase of systemic transition.
- Message: This is not routine turbulence; it is a historical turning point.
2) Post-1945 order is crumbling; transition resembles the inter-war danger zone
- Compares current moment to 1919–1939:
- Institutions weakened.
- Great powers abandon restraint.
- Norms collapse accelerates conflict risk.
- League of Nations cited as warning:
- Could not restrain strong.
- Could not protect weak.
- Ended in systemic breakdown (WWII).