India’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Challenges, Commitments, and the Road Ahead

1)      India’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Challenges, Commitments, and the Road Ahead

India stands at a crucial developmental crossroads: rapid economic expansion is occurring alongside a sharp rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 places India among the top three global emitters by absolute volume, after China and the United States. Although India’s per-capita emissions remain far below the global average—a key argument in climate negotiations—total emissions have increased due to expanding energy demand, industrial growth, urbanisation, mobility needs, and agricultural methane output.

The world is drifting away from the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Even with full implementation of current national pledges, global temperatures could rise by 2.3–2.8°C by 2100. Temporary overshoot of 1.5°C by the early 2030s could push ecosystems beyond adaptation limits, forcing reliance on costly and uncertain carbon removal technologies.

2)      Sources of India’s Emissions:

Four sectors dominate India’s GHG profile—energy, industry, transport, and agriculture. Coal remains the backbone of power generation, contributing over 70% of electricity and emitting around 1.3 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2024. Industrial processes, especially steel, cement, and chemicals, add significantly to emissions as India’s manufacturing advances. Transport contributes around 10% of emissions, driven by vehicle growth and limited modal shift despite EV incentives. Agriculture contributes methane through livestock and rice cultivation.

3)      Drivers of Rising Emissions:

Rapid urbanisation (with urban population expected to reach ~40% by 2030), expanding industrialisation, and growing energy consumption exert upward pressure on GHG output. Fossil fuels still account for more than 55% of primary energy supply, indicating a persistent dependence on coal.

4)      Environmental & Developmental Impacts:

India faces intensified heatwaves, air pollution (over 2 million premature deaths

annually), erratic monsoons, glacial retreat, floods, droughts, and biodiversity loss. These climatic stresses directly affect agriculture, infrastructure, public health, water security, and labour productivity. Economic losses may reach 5–10% of GDP annually by 2050.

5)      Climate Commitments: